Introduction
Hi everyone. Long time, no see! Sorry for not writing more about this wild election season; I've been busy over the past few weeks.
Let's talk about everything that could/will happen on Tuesday. If, as the polls suggest, this ends up being a blue wave, it could be a generational one, much larger than 2006 or 2018. It's worth preparing for both underwhelming and overwhelming performances for Democrats, so that is why my forecast centers around a D+9–10 generic congressional ballot.
I will be discussing House races that either the Cook Political Report or Sabato's Crystal Ball deem to be competitive. Let's begin with:
New England
Maine's 2nd district (northern Maine): Lean Democratic
Incumbent centrist Democrat Jared Golden, who retires this year, is nothing like the nominee Democrats have put forward this year. State Auditor Matt Dunlap is a progressive, running contrary to the conventional wisdom that only conservative Democrats can win in Trump country. However, Maine's 2nd district is Obama-Trump country (meaning, Obama won this district in 2008 and 2012, while Trump won it in 2016, 2020, and 2024). In addition, the former Democratic representative of this district, Mike Michaud, endorsed Dunlap.
He is facing off against a strong Republican nominee, former governor Paul LePage. LePage ran again for governor in 2022 and, despite losing by 13 points, won the 2nd district by 2 points. This made me skeptical that any Democrat, even Golden, would be able to defeat LePage.
However, the national environment has worsened to such an extent that I am unsure a MAGA-aligned Republican like LePage can win this district anymore. Maine is one of only two states I classify as "independent-minded" — it, along with Alaska, is willing to elect moderate candidates of either party. Dunlap has the endorsement of well-respected, moderate, and independent senator (and former governor) Angus King, as well as the AFL-CIO.
Could Dunlap be too progressive for rural northern Maine? It's possible, but remember, rural areas have been significantly hurt by the One Big Beautiful Bill and the ongoing Iran war. Even though both Cook and Sabato say this district leans toward Republicans, I think it leans toward Democrats this year.
New Hampshire's 1st district (eastern New Hampshire): Likely D
Honestly, there's a decent argument for putting this district in the Solid/Safe category for Democrats. However, multiple polls have put Democratic nominee Stefany Shaheen up only 4 points against the Republican, Anthony DiLorenzo. Stefany Shaheen is the daughter of current senator Jeanne Shaheen, who retires this year. The incumbent in this district, Chris Pappas, is running to replace her.
New Hampshire has surprised people before, but Shaheen's family name makes her the heavy favorite. Trump's endorsement of DiLorenzo will not do Republicans any favors here, given how this district voted for Kamala Harris in 2024, breaking its bellwether streak that it held since 2000. Aside from the polling being relatively close, nothing here is in Republicans' favor.
New Hampshire's 2nd district (western New Hampshire): Safe D
Some rate this district to be "Likely D," but there is no evidence for that. Incumbent Democrat Maggie Goodlander is in a rematch with her Republican challenger, Lily Tang Williams. In 2024, when Goodlander ran for her first term, she beat Williams by nearly 6 points. This year, Goodlander polls 15–20 points ahead of Williams. This race's outcome is set in stone.
New York
New York City metro area closeup:
New York's 1st district (North Shore & East End of Long Island, Suffolk County): Lean R
Incumbent Republican representative Nick LaLota is up against Democratic challenger Chris Gallant.
Suffolk County was one of multiple counties in the New York City metropolitan area that swung hard to the right for Lee Zeldin (the Republican nominee for governor of New York in 2022) and Donald Trump in 2024. Joe Biden lost Suffolk County by less than 250 votes in 2020, but Kamala Harris lost it by over 75,000 votes. In addition, the legislature reconfigured the 1st district in 2024 to give some Democratic-leaning areas to the 3rd district, making the 1st more Republican. I don't expect Long Island to swing toward Democrats as much as other areas of the country; it is relatively wealthy and urbanized.
Gallant is gay, but he has not made his sexuality an issue in this race. However, in September, the New York Post published an article "exposing" him for NSFW modeling, including pictures of his work. It's unclear how much this shifted the needle, if at all. Exposure cuts both ways: any political attack on a candidate's adult-oriented activities will motivate people on both sides of the sex-positivity debate to vote. It would not surprise me if this tactic backfired.
While Gallant is the underdog due to Long Island's hard right shift, he certainly has a chance to overcome the odds and become the first Democrat to represent the east end of Long Island since 2012.
New York's 3rd district (western North Shore, mostly Nassau County): Likely D
I don't have a lot to say about this district. Incumbent Democrat Tom Suozzi is facing off against his 2024 opponent, Republican Mike LiPetri. As I mentioned before, Long Island will likely not swing to the left as much as the rest of the country; however, I have little reason to believe it could swing to the right enough for Suozzi to lose. That being said, I will call it a Likely D district just in case something happens. It did vote for Trump, after all.
New York's 4th district (central and southern Nassau County): Safe D
This is the same thing as the 3rd district, just more Democratic (Harris won this district). Incumbent Democrat Laura Gillen has a 9:1 fundraising advantage against her Republican challenger, Jeanine Driscoll. This race is not going anywhere.
New York's 17th district (lower Hudson Valley): Lean D
Mike Lawler, the Republican incumbent, is one of only three Republicans representing districts Harris won in 2024 (we call this a "crossover district"). The media speculated he might run for governor, but Trump asked him to stay put in his district. Lawler is more willing to break with Trump than the average Republican, but definitely not as much as his fellow Republicans in crossover districts (Mike Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania and Don Bacon of Nebraska).
While I believe Democrats are favored here, mainly due to just how bad the national environment is for Republicans, I think there is also a real case for this being a tossup. In Lawler's district are multiple Hasidic Jewish communities, who vote extremely Republican. By "extremely," I mean "by the same margins as minority voters in cities."
Voting used to be uncommon for Hasidic Jews in these communities, but when Trump moved the U.S. embassy in Israel to Jerusalem in 2018, he gained significant support from Ultra-Orthodox Jewish leaders in Israel and the United States. Last year, in New Jersey, the largest place to shift significantly to the right was the Hasidic Jewish community of Lakewood Township.
The question is, can Hasidic Jewish turnout in Kiryas Joel, New Square, and Kaser outpace 2024? If it can, that makes Democratic challenger Cait Conley's job much harder.
New York's 19th district (upper Hudson River valley, Catskills, Ithaca, Binghamton): Solid D
I don't have much to say about this district either. In 2024, the race in this district was the most expensive House race of that election cycle. This year, things are different. The Republican challenger, state senator Peter Oberacker, capitulated earlier this month, as Republicans took ad spending money out of this race and redirected it elsewhere. This race is over. I expect incumbent Democrat Josh Riley to win by 10–15 points.
New York's 21st district (North Country): Lean R
This district should not be competitive. However, the Republican nominee, sticker magnate Anthony Constantino, says things like this:
“Where do you think you really need to perform the best to make sure you win this thing? And then also, what is the most populous city in NY-21?” Lahut asked.
“Most populous city? I don’t know, ask Grok,” Constantino snapped, referring to billionaire Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence chatbot. “You can figure these things out. I don’t memorize things, because there’s a thing called SI now.”
“You use the term SI instead of AI? When did you start doing that? Also, it’s Rome, I believe,” Lahut responded. Rome, home to about 32,000 people, is the district’s largest city.
“Elon’s doing it, Mark Zuckerberg is doing it. It’s actually a pretty good name. But people can call it whatever they want,” Constantino said.
(source — emphasis added by me)
OPEN THE SCHOOLS!
When Trump nominated Elise Stefanik to be Ambassador to the United Nations, both parties expected a special election. Democrats nominated dairy farmer Blake Gendebein, and the cash started flowing in. Apparently, this scared the administration so much that Trump withdrew his nomination and gave it to someone else. Stefanik later chose to run for governor, but with Trump supporting Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, she dropped out of the race. She retires at the end of this year.
Guess who still has all that cash? Gendebein does! With his cash, he has gone far in making this race surprisingly competitive. Polling shows him and Constantino neck-and-neck. It's also worth mentioning Constantino won a highly contentious primary against state assemblyman Robert Smullen, who threatened to challenge him on the Conservative Party of New York ballot line, although he ultimately dropped out.
Gendebein, a Blue Dog, has a decent chance of pulling off an upset, but Republicans (especially Constantino himself) are shoring up a lot of resources to eliminate Gendebein's monetary advantage. I expect this race to be close, but Constantino has the upper hand.
Thanks for reading!
Thank you all for reading my explainer, which will be the first in a series about various House, Senate, and Governor races. I hope this was easy to understand, even if you are new to learning about elections. Let me know how you feel by liking the Leaflet below and sharing & discussing it on Bluesky. Have a good day, and remember to make a plan to vote if you haven't already!
—Trisk